Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

The effect of conflict-related violence intensity and alcohol use on mental health: The case of Colombia.

We investigated the causal impact of conflict-related violence on individual mental health and its potential pathways in Colombia. Using data from before and after the 2016 peace accord between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), we adopted a difference-in-differences empirical design combined with instrumental variables estimation. We also used formal mediation analysis to investigate a possible mediating role of alcohol consumption in the relationship between conflict exposure and mental health. Our results did not support the hypothesis that changes in exposure to conflict violence after the peace accord causally led to any changes in individual mental health. We were unable to identify a statistically significant mediating effect of alcohol consumption in the relationship between exposure to conflict violence and mental health.

Trends in mental health before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal survey of a conflict-affected population in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Focusing on the Meta region in Colombia, we investigated the relationship between mental health, the COVID-19 pandemic, and social determinants of health influenced by over five decades of civil conflict. We studied the post-2016 peace agreement trends in mental health for the population of Meta, before and after the local onset of the pandemic. METHOD: We conducted three rounds of a longitudinal health survey in years 2018 with N = 1309 (Women = 709; Men = 600); 2019 with N = 1106 (Women = 597; Men = 509); and 2020 with N = 905 (Women = 499; Men = 406). We measured mental health through the Self-Report Questionnaire (SRQ-20), investigating population trends in the average SRQ score and SRQ-positive frequency (SRQ + , indicating positive tendency towards experiencing mental health disorders). RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2020, there were reductions in the mean SRQ-20 score by 1.74 points (95% CI -2.30 to -1.18) and in SRQ + frequency by 15 percentage points (95% CI -21.0 to -9.0) for the Meta population. Yet specific subgroups have become more vulnerable to mental illness during the pandemic, for example older age groups (e.g., increase in mean SRQ score among over 60 s by 2.49 points, 95% CI 0.51 to 4.46) and people living with children younger than five years-old (e.g., increase in mean SRQ score by 0.64 points, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.20). Increased mental health vulnerability among specific subgroups may be related to differences in the likelihood of knowing people who tested positive for COVID-19 or died from itf having been in quarantine. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the importance of public policies in Colombia (and other low- and middle-income countries) that address the social determinants of mental illness whose influence was likely exacerbated by the pandemic, including persistent job insecurity leading to work and financial pressures, and inadequate support networks for isolated individuals and vulnerable caregivers.

Central America and the Dominican Republic at Crossroads: The Importance of Regional Cooperation and Health Economic Research to Address Current Health Challenges.

OBJECTIVES: We discuss key health challenges currently faced by countries in the Central America and Dominican Republic region after the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight the influence of socioeconomic determinants for the challenging public health dynamics observed and the crucial roles that regional cooperation and health economic research can have for tackling such challenges. METHODS: We present a descriptive overview of the current situation of public finances and its effect on government capacity to improve social expenditure. We also discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on social dynamics and living conditions in the region. RESULTS: Our analysis suggests that the interplay between all these factors is likely to have important consequences for health systems and population health in the post-pandemic period. Previous examples of successful cross-country cooperation in the region indicate the great potential that these initiatives have for supporting health system resilience against current challenges. Technical cooperation must be informed by (currently unavailable) research evidence that can guide decision making, especially health economic research to support national health resource allocation policies. Areas identified as priorities for applied health economic research include both macro and microeconomic analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Central America and the Dominican Republic face significant health challenges post-pandemic. Our article emphasizes the great potential that regional technical cooperation, informed by further health economic research, has to improve public policies and health governance in the region.

Mental health disorders in population displaced by conflict in Colombia: Comparative analysis against the National Mental Health Survey 2015.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Colombia is one of the countries with the highest levels of internal displacement resulting from armed conflict. This population has greater chances of experiencing a mental health disorder, especially in territories historically affected by armed conflict. Our objective was to compare the levels of possible mental health disorder in people experiencing internal displacement in Meta, Colombia, a department historically affected by armed conflict, compared to the internally displaced population in the National Mental Health Survey of 2015. METHODS: Analysis of data collected in the National Mental Health Survey (ENSM) of 2015, study with representative data at national level and the Conflict, Peace and Health survey (CONPAS) of 2014, representative study of the degree of impact of the conflict on the municipality, conducted in the department of Meta, Colombia. To measure possible mental health disorder, the Self-Report Questionnaire-25 (SRQ-25) was used. Internal displacement is self-reported by people surveyed in both studies. An exploratory analysis is used to measure possible mental health disorders in the displaced population in the ENSM 2015 and CONPAS 2014. RESULTS: 1089 adults were surveyed in CONPAS 2014 and 10,870 adults were surveyed in the ENSM 2015. 42.9% (468) and 8.7% (943) of people reported being internally displaced in CONPAS 2014 and ENSM 2015, respectively. In both studies, internally displaced populations have greater chances of experiencing any mental health disorder compared to non-displaced populations. For CONPAS 2014, 21.8% (95%CI, 18.1-25.8) of this population had a possible mental health disorder (SRQ+) compared to 14.0% (95%CI, 11.8-16.3) in the ENSM 2015. Compared with the ENSM 2015, at the regional level (CONPAS 2014), displaced people had a greater chance of presenting depression by 12.4% (95%CI, 9.5-15.7) compared to 5.7% (95%CI, 4.3-7.4) in the ENSM 2015, anxiety in 21.4% (95%CI, 17.7-25.3) compared to 16.5% (95%CI, 14.2-19.1) in the ENSM 2015, and psychosomatic disorders in 52.4% (95%CI, 47.5-56.7) in CONPAS 2014 compared to 42.2% (95%CI, 39.0-45.4) in the ENSM 2015. At the national level (ENSM 2015), displaced people had greater possibilities of presenting, compared to the regional level, suicidal ideation in 11.9% (95%CI, 9.3-14.1) compared to 7.3% (95%CI, 5.0-10.0) in CONPAS 2014 and bipolar disorder in 56.5% (95%CI, 53.2-59.7) compared to 39.3% (95%CI, 34.8-43.9) in CONPAS 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The greater possibilities of displaced populations at the regional level of experiencing a mental health disorder, compared to this same population at the national level, may represent and indicate greater needs in mental health care services in territories affected by conflict. Therefore, and given the need to facilitate access to health services in mental health for populations especially affected by armed conflict, there is a need to design health care policies that facilitate the recovery of populations affected by war and, simultaneously, that reduce inequities and promote the fulfilment of one of the most important and, at the same time, least prioritised health objectives in international development: mental health.

Trastornos de salud mental en población desplazada por el conflicto en Colombia: análisis comparado frente a la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Mental 2015

Introducción y objetivos: Colombia es uno de los países del mundo con mayor volumen de desplazamiento interno a causa de un conflicto armado interno. Esta población tiene mayores posibilidades de sufrir un trastorno de salud mental, sobre todo en territorios afectados históricamente por el conflicto. El objetivo es comparar la prevalencia de posibles trastornos de la salud mental entre las personas en condición de desplazamiento en Meta, departamento de Colombia históricamente afectado por el conflicto armado, frente a población desplazada en todo el país según la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Mental (ENSM) de 2015. Métodos: Análisis de datos recolectados en la ENSM 2015, estudio a escala nacional, y la encuesta Conflicto, Salud y Paz (CONPAS) de 2014, estudio representativo del grado de afectación por el conflicto en el municipio, realizado en el departamento del Meta. Para medir un posible trastorno de la salud mental, se utiliza el Self Report Questionnaire-25 (SRQ-25). La condición de desplazamiento fue declarada por los encuestados en ambos estudios. Se hizo un análisis descriptivo sobre el posible trastorno de la salud mental en la población desplazada de la ENSM 2015 y la CONPAS 2014. Resultados: Se encuestó a 1.089 adultos en la CONPAS 2014 y 10.870 adultos en la ENSM 2015. El 42,9% (468) y el 8,7% (943) de las personas reportaron estar en condición de desplazamiento en la CONPAS 2014 y la ENSM 2015 respectivamente. En ambos estudios, la población desplazada tiene mayores posibilidades de sufrir cualquier trastorno de la salud mental que la población no desplazada. En la CONPAS 2014, el 21,8% (intervalo de confianza del 95% [IC95%], 18,1-25,8) de esta población tenía un posible trastorno de la salud mental (SRQ+) frente al 14,0% (IC95%, 11,8-16,3) en la ENSM 2015. Los encuestados en condición de desplazamiento de la CONPAS 2014 tuvieron mayor probabilidad que los de la ENSM 2015 en depresión -el 12,4% (IC95%, 9,5-15,7) frente al 5,7% (IC95%, 4,3-7,4)-, ansiedad -el 21,4% (IC95%, 17,7-25,3) frente al 16,5% (IC95%, 14,2-19,1)-y trastornos psicosomáticos -el 52,4% (IC95%, 47,5-56,7) frente al 42,2% (IC95%, 39,0-45,4)-. Los desplazados de la ENSM 2015 tenían mayor probabilidad de ideación suicida, el 11,9% (IC95%, 9,3-14,1) frente al 7,3% (IC95%, 5,0-10,0) en la CONPAS 2014, y trastorno bipolar, el 56,5% (IC95%, 53,2-59,7) frente al 39,3% (IC95%, 34,8-43,9). Conclusiones: La mayor probabilidad de trastornos de la salud mental (SRQ+) de la población regional en condición de desplazamiento frente a toda la población nacional en esa condición puede representar una mayor necesidad de servicios de atención en salud mental en los territorios afectados por el conflicto. Así pues, y dada la necesidad de facilitar el acceso y la atención médica en salud mental a poblaciones especialmente afectadas por el conflicto armado, es importante el diseño de políticas de atención en salud que faciliten la recuperación de poblaciones afectadas por la guerra y, simultáneamente, reducir inequidades y promover el cumplimiento de uno de los objetivos en salud más importantes y, a la vez, usualmente menos priorizados en el desarrollo internacional: la salud mental. © 2021 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. Todos los derechos reservados.

Background and objectives: Colombia is one of the countries with the highest levels of internal displacement resulting from armed conflict. This population has greater chances of experiencing a mental health disorder, especially in territories historically affected by armed conflict. Our objective was to compare the levels of possible mental health disorder in people experiencing internal displacement in Meta, Colombia, a department historically affected by armed conflict, compared to the internally displaced population in the National Mental Health Survey of 2015. Methods: Analysis of data collected in the National Mental Health Survey (ENSM) of 2015, study with representative data at national level and the Conflict, Peace and Health survey (CONPAS) of 2014, representative study of the degree of impact of the conflict on the municipality, conducted in the department of Meta, Colombia. To measure possible mental health disorder, the Self-Report Questionnaire - 25 (SRQ-25) was used. Internal displacement is self-reported by people surveyed in both studies. An exploratory analysis is used to measure possible mental health disorders in the displaced population in the ENSM 2015 and CONPAS 2014. Results: 1,089 adults were surveyed in CONPAS 2014 and 10,870 adults were surveyed in the ENSM 2015. 42.9% (468) and 8.7% (943) of people reported being internally displaced in CONPAS 2014 and ENSM 2015, respectively. In both studies, internally displaced populations have greater chances of experiencing any mental health disorder compared to non-displaced populations. For CONPAS 2014, 21.8% (95%CI, 18.1-25.8) of this population had a possible mental health disorder (SRQ+) compared to 14.0% (95%CI, 11.8-16.3) in the ENSM 2015. Compared with the ENSM 2015, at the regional level (CONPAS 2014), displaced people had a greater chance of presenting depression by 12.4% (95%CI, 9.5-15.7) compared to 5.7% (95%CI, 4.3-7.4) in the ENSM 2015, anxiety in 21.4% (95%CI, 17.7-25.3) compared to 16.5% (95%CI, 14.2-19.1) in the ENSM 2015, and psychosomatic disorders in 52.4% (95%CI, 47.5-56.7) in CONPAS 2014 compared to 42.2% (95%CI, 39.0-45.4) in the ENSM 2015. At the national level (ENSM 2015), displaced people had greater possibilities of presenting, compared to the regional level, suicidal ideation in 11.9% (95%CI, 9.3-14.1) compared to 7.3% (95%CI, 5.0-10.0) in CONPAS 2014 and bipolar disorder in 56.5% (95%CI, 53.2-59.7) compared to 39.3% (95%CI, 34.8-43.9) in CONPAS 2014. Conclusions: The greater possibilities of displaced populations at the regional level of experiencing a mental health disorder, compared to this same population at the national level, may represent and indicate greater needs in mental health care services in territories affected by conflict. Therefore, and given the need to facilitate access to health services in mental health for populations especially affected by armed conflict, there is a need to design health care policies that facilitate the recovery of populations affected by war and, simultaneously, that reduce inequities and promote the fulfilment of one of the most important and, at the same time, least prioritised health objectives in international development: mental health.

Is primary health care worth it in the long run? Evidence from Brazil.

This paper assesses whether Brazilian primary health care is worth it in the long-run by estimating the accumulated costs and benefits of its flagship, the Family Health Strategy program (ESF). We employ an alternative strategy centered on years of exposure to the program to incorporate its dynamics. We also account for the program's heterogeneity with respect to the remuneration of ESF health teams and the intensity of coverage across Brazilian municipalities, measure by the number of people assisted by each ESF team, on average. To address heterogeneity in professional earnings, this paper employs, for the first time, a dataset containing the remuneration of professionals allocated to all ESF teams nationwide. The benefits are measured by the avoided deaths and hospitalizations due to causes sensitive to primary care. Results suggest that the net monetary benefit of the program is positive on average, with an optimum time of exposure of approximately 16 years. Significant heterogeneities in cost-benefit results were found since costs outweigh benefits in localities where the coverage is low intensive. On the other hand, the benefits outweigh the costs by 22.5% on average in municipalities with high intensive coverage.

What is the impact of forced displacement on health? A scoping review.

While there is a broad literature analysing the effects of migration on health, important knowledge gaps persist particularly on the causal effects of forced displacement on health outcomes. We undertake a scoping review of applied epidemiological, statistical and econometric studies examining causal health impacts of forced displacement, which initially identified 1454 studies from the health and social sciences disciplines published up to May 2021. Our study makes two key contributions. First, we offer a comprehensive overview of the evidence generated, methodologies adopted and analytical challenges faced by current research examining the causal relationship between forced displacement and health. Second, we present concrete examples of how key challenges around study design and estimation approaches influence the strength of the evidence-base on the topic, using as a case study the broad domain of reproductive health. We find that, beyond the increased mortality risk that can be attributed to forced displacement, most of the available empirical evidence for a wide range of health outcomes is prone to substantial bias, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Our synthesis of credible studies conducted in different settings indicates that current research practice in the field could be strengthened through selection of valid control groups and application of more appropriate causal inference methods. Our findings are useful to promote the generation of further evidence on the topic that can reliably inform the design of policies to protect the health of displaced populations.

The Brazilian Family Health Strategy and adult health: Evidence from individual and local data for metropolitan areas.

Previous studies have found that the expansion of primary health care in Brazil following the country-wide family health strategy (ESF), one of the largest primary care programs in the world, has improved health outcomes. However, these studies have relied either on aggregate data or on limited individual data, with no fine-grained information available concerning household participation in the ESF or local supply of ESF services, which represent crucial aspects for analytical and policy purposes. This study analyzes the relationship between the ESF and health outcomes for the adult population in metropolitan areas in Brazil. We investigate this relationship through two linked dimensions of the ESF: the program's local supply of health teams and ESF household registration. In contrast with previous studies focusing on comparisons between certain definitions of "treated" versus "nontreated" populations, our results indicate that the local density of health teams is important to the observed effects of the ESF on adult health. We also find evidence consistent with the presence of positive primary health care spillovers to people not registered with the ESF. However, current ESF coverage levels in metropolitan areas have limited ability to address prevailing health inequalities. Our analysis suggests that the local intensity of ESF coverage should be a key consideration for evaluations and policy efforts related to future ESF expansion.

Addressing recall bias in (post-)conflict data collection and analysis: lessons from a large-scale health survey in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Much applied research on the consequences of conflicts for health suffers from data limitations, particularly the absence of longitudinal data spanning pre-, during- and post-conflict periods for affected individuals. Such limitations often hinder reliable measurement of the causal effects of conflict and their pathways, hampering also the design of effective post-conflict health policies. Researchers have sought to overcome these data limitations by conducting ex-post surveys, asking participants to recall their health and living standards before (or during) conflict. These questions may introduce important analytical biases due to recall error and misreporting. METHODS: We investigate how to implement ex-post health surveys that collect recall data, for conflict-affected populations, which is reliable for empirical analysis via standard quantitative methods. We propose two complementary strategies based on methods developed in the psychology and psychometric literatures-the Flashbulb and test-retest approaches-to identify and address recall bias in ex-post health survey data. We apply these strategies to the case study of a large-scale health survey which we implemented in Colombia in the post-peace agreement period, but that included recall questions referring to the conflict period. RESULTS: We demonstrate how adapted versions of the Flashbulb and test-retest strategies can be used to test for recall bias in (post-)conflict survey responses. We also show how these test strategies can be incorporated into post-conflict health surveys in their design phase, accompanied by further ex-ante mitigation strategies for recall bias, to increase the reliability of survey data analysis-including by identifying the survey modules, and sub-populations, for which empirical analysis is likely to yield more reliable causal inference about the health consequences of conflict. CONCLUSIONS: Our study makes a novel contribution to the field of applied health research in humanitarian settings, by providing practical methodological guidance for the implementation of data collection efforts in humanitarian contexts where recall information, collected from primary surveys, is required to allow assessments of changes in health and wellbeing. Key lessons include the importance of embedding appropriate strategies to test and address recall bias into the design of any relevant data collection tools in post-conflict or humanitarian contexts.

Health perceptions among victims in post-accord Colombia: Focus groups in a province affected by the armed conflict.

The peace agreement with the Colombian guerrilla group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo represented an opportunity for peacebuilding and victims' reparation, rather than the end of the internal armed conflict. In this context, this study aimed to uncover the consequences of conflict on victims' health and on health service provision, and their perceived health status during the post-accord stage in the Meta region, located in the country's eastern plains. Historically, this region has been one of the territories most affected by the presence of conflict-related groups and armed confrontations. Through focus groups, this research explored the health perceptions and experiences of victims of armed conflict. Ten focus groups were conducted with men and women, victims of the armed-conflict, in four municipalities with different degrees of armed conflict intensity. The focus group transcripts were coded using NVivo. The results show that the way women have experienced conflict and the effects of conflict on mental health in general for men, women, and children were recurrent themes in the dialogue of victims. Likewise, it highlights the need to understand the barriers that the current health model imposes on the right to health itself. From the victim's perspective, they experience stigmatization, discrimination, and revictimization when accessing health services. These barriers co-occur along with structural limitations of the health system that affect the general population.

Assessment of the association between the Brazilian family health strategy and adult mortality.

This study aimed to analyse a wide range of related health problems that respond favourably to efficient primary care treatment among adults. We evaluate the direct impact of the Family Health Strategy (ESF) in Brazil on mortality of adults aged 25-64 years related to conditions for which access to effective primary care can reduce the likelihood of more severe outcomes. Additionally, we discuss heterogeneous effects associated with different intensities of the programme. To address these issues, we estimated a model with variation at the municipal level of the ESF expansion, including municipal-fixed effects, municipal specific trends and year-fixed effects. Our results show that a higher intensity of ESF is associated with reduced mortality by all conditions sensitive to primary care and for some diseases, especially after some years: avoidable conditions, asthma, heart failure, cerebrovascular diseases and gastrointestinal ulcer, infectious gastroenteritis and complications, diseases of the lower airways, hypertension and diabetes. As a public policy view, these results help understand how a nationwide primary care strategy can help mitigate mortality and emphasize the role of having sufficient health teams to attend to the population.

The impact of civil conflict on child health: Evidence from Colombia.

Internal armed conflicts have become more common and more physically destructive since the mid-20th century, with devastating consequences for health and development in low- and middle-income countries. This paper investigates the causal impacts of the long-term internal conflict on child health in Colombia, following an identification strategy based on the temporal and geographic variation of conflict intensity. We estimate the effect of different levels of conflict intensity on height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and weight-for-height z-scores among children under five years old, and explore the underlying potential mechanisms, through maternal health behavior and health care utilization. We find a harmful effect of exposure to conflict violence in utero and in early childhood for HAZ and WAZ, in the full sample and even more strongly in the rural sample, yet these estimates are smaller than those found for shorter term conflicts. The underlying pathways appear to operate around the time of the pregnancy and birth (in the form of maternal alcohol use, use of antenatal care and skilled birth attendance), rather than during the post-birth period (via breastfeeding or vaccination), and the impacts accumulate over the childhood. The most adverse impacts of conflict violence on child health and utilization of maternal healthcare were observed in municipalities which suffered from intermittent presence of armed groups.

Primary care coverage and individual health: evidence from a likelihood model using biomarkers in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Although the use of biomarkers to assess health outcomes has recently gained momentum, literature is still scarce for low- to middle-income countries. This paper explores the relationship between primary care coverage and individual health in Brazil using a dataset of blood-based biomarkers collected by the Brazilian National Health Survey. Both survey data and laboratory results were crossed with coverage data from the Family Health Strategy (ESF) program, the most important primary care program in Brazil; the coverage measures aim to capture both direct (household) and indirect (spill-over) effects. METHODS: The empirical strategy used a probit model to estimate the relationship between ESF program coverage and the likelihood of abnormal biomarker levels while controlling for a rich set of individual and household characteristics based on data from the national survey. RESULTS: Household ESF coverage was associated with a lower likelihood of abnormal results for biomarkers related to anemia (marginal effect between - 2.16 and - 2.18 percentage points), kidney failure (between - 1.01 and - 1.19 p.p.), and arterial hypertension (between - 1.48 and - 1.64 p.p). The likelihood of abnormal levels of white blood cells and thrombocytes was negatively related to primary care coverage (marginal effect between - 1.8 and - 2 p.p.). The spillover effects were relevant for kidney failure and arterial hypertension, depending on the regional level. Although not sensitive to household coverage, diabetes mellitus was negatively associated with the state supply of primary care, and abnormal cholesterol levels did not present any relationship with ESF program coverage. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of spillover effects of ESF program coverage regarding these conditions reveals that the strengthening of primary care by increasing the household registration and the regional density of ESF teams is an efficient strategy to address important comorbidities.

Health in Conflict Zones: Analyzing Inequalities in Mental Health in Colombian Conflict-Affected Territories.

Objectives: Colombia's civil conflict and persistent socio-economic disparities have contributed to mental health inequalities in conflict-affected territories. We explore the magnitude of mental health inequalities, contributing socio-economic factors, and sociodemographic characteristics that explain these differences. Methods: The study draws on data collected in 2018, using the household survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) applied to 1,309 households in Meta, Colombia. Logistic regression and decomposition analysis were used to analyze the risk of mental health disorders, measured with the Self-Reporting Questionnaire -20 (SRQ-20). Results: Individuals with lower socio-economic status are at a higher risk for mental health disorders. Forced displacement accounts for 31% of the measured mental health inequalities. Disparities in employment, education level, disability and conflict incidence between municipalities are other contributing factors. Women and people with disabilities are respectively 2.3 and 1.2 times more prone to present a mental health disorder. Conclusion: It is necessary to tackle the identified risk factors and sociodemographic circumstances that contribute to mental health inequalities in conflict-affected territories, as these hinder adequate/equitable access to mental health services.

Inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected areas and the Colombian peace agreement: an oaxaca-blinder change decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: The present study analyzes inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected regions of Meta, Colombia and socioeconomic factors contributing to the existence and changes in catastrophic expenditures before and after the sign of Colombian Peace Agreement with FARC-EP guerilla group in 2016. METHODS: The study uses the results of the survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) conducted in 1309 households of Meta, Colombia, a territory historically impacted by armed conflict, for the years 2014 and 2018. We define catastrophic expenditures as health expenditures above 20% of the capacity to pay of a household. We disaggregate the changes in inequalities in catastrophic expenditures through the Oaxaca-Blinder change decomposition method. RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic expenditures slightly increased between 2014 to 2018, from 29.3 to 30.7%. Inequalities in catastrophic expenditures, measured through concentration indexes (CI), also increased from 2014 (CI: -0.152) to 2018 (CI: -0.232). Results show that differences in catastrophic expenditures between socioeconomic groups are mostly attributed to an increased influence of specific sociodemographic variables such as living in rural zones, being a middle-aged person, living in conflict-affected territories, or presenting any type of mental and physical disability. CONCLUSIONS: Conflict-deescalation and the peace agreement may have facilitated lower-income groups to have access to health services, especially in territories highly impacted by conflict. This, consequently, may have led to higher levels of out-of-pocket expenditures and, therefore, to higher chances of experiencing catastrophic expenditures for lower-income groups in comparison to higher-income groups. Therefore, results indicate the importance of designing policies that guarantee access to health services for people in conflict -affected regions but also, that minimize health care inequalities in out-of-pocket payments that may arouse between people at different socioeconomic groups.

Conflict violence reduction and pregnancy outcomes: A regression discontinuity design in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality has not been studied empirically using rigorous methods and appropriate data. We investigated the association between reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes in Colombia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adopted a regression discontinuity (RD) design using the July 20, 2015 cease-fire declared during the Colombian peace process as an exogenous discontinuous change in exposure to conflict events during pregnancy, comparing women with conception dates before and after the cease-fire date. We constructed the cohorts of all pregnant women in Colombia for each day between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017 using birth and death certificates. A total of 3,254,696 women were followed until the end of pregnancy. We measured conflict exposure as the total number of conflict events that occurred in the municipality where a pregnant woman lived during her pregnancy. We first assessed whether the cease-fire did induce a discontinuous fall in conflict exposure for women with conception dates after the cease-fire to then estimate the association of this reduced exposure with the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality. We found that the July 20, 2015 cease-fire was associated with a reduction of the average number of conflict events (from 2.64 to 2.40) to which women were exposed during pregnancy in their municipalities of residence (mean differences -0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.35 to -0.13; p < 0.001). This association was greater in municipalities where Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) had a greater presence historically. The reduction in average exposure to conflict violence was, in turn, associated with a decrease of 9.53 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies (95% CI -16.13 to -2.93; p = 0.005) for municipalities with total number of FARC-related violent events above the 90th percentile of the distribution of FARC-related conflict events and a decrease of 7.57 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies (95% CI -13.14 to -2.00; p = 0.01) for municipalities with total number of FARC-related violent events above the 75th percentile of FARC-related events. For perinatal mortality, we found associated reductions of 10.69 (95% CI -18.32 to -3.05; p = 0.01) and 6.86 (95% CI -13.24 to -0.48; p = 0.04) deaths per 1,000 pregnancies for the 2 types of municipalities, respectively. We found no association with miscarriages. Formal tests support the validity of the key RD assumptions in our data, while a battery of sensitivity analyses and falsification tests confirm the robustness of our empirical results. The main limitations of the study are the retrospective nature of the information sources and the potential for conflict exposure misclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Our study offers evidence that reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy is associated with important (previously unmeasured) benefits in terms of reducing the risk of stillbirth and perinatal deaths. The findings are consistent with such beneficial associations manifesting themselves mainly through reduced violence exposure during the early stages of pregnancy. Beyond the relevance of this evidence for other countries beset by chronic armed conflicts, our results suggest that the fledgling Colombian peace process may be already contributing to better population health.

Mental Health Disorders in Population Displaced by Conflict in Colombia: Comparative Analysis against the National Mental Health Survey 2015. / Trastornos de salud mental en población desplazada por el conflicto en Colombia: análisis comparado frente a la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Mental 2015.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Colombia is one of the countries with the highest levels of internal displacement resulting from armed conflict. This population has greater chances of experiencing a mental health disorder, especially in territories historically affected by armed conflict. Our objective was to compare the levels of possible mental health disorder in people experiencing internal displacement in Meta, Colombia, a department historically affected by armed conflict, compared to the internally displaced population in the National Mental Health Survey of 2015. METHODS: Analysis of data collected in the National Mental Health Survey (ENSM) of 2015, study with representative data at national level and the Conflict, Peace and Health survey (CONPAS) of 2014, representative study of the degree of impact of the conflict on the municipality, conducted in the department of Meta, Colombia. To measure possible mental health disorder, the Self-Report Questionnaire - 25 (SRQ-25) was used. Internal displacement is self-reported by people surveyed in both studies. An exploratory analysis is used to measure possible mental health disorders in the displaced population in the ENSM 2015 and CONPAS 2014. RESULTS: 1,089 adults were surveyed in CONPAS 2014 and 10,870 adults were surveyed in the ENSM 2015. 42.9% (468) and 8.7% (943) of people reported being internally displaced in CONPAS 2014 and ENSM 2015, respectively. In both studies, internally displaced populations have greater chances of experiencing any mental health disorder compared to non-displaced populations. For CONPAS 2014, 21.8% (95%CI, 18.1-25.8) of this population had a possible mental health disorder (SRQ+) compared to 14.0% (95%CI, 11.8-16.3) in the ENSM 2015. Compared with the ENSM 2015, at the regional level (CONPAS 2014), displaced people had a greater chance of presenting depression by 12.4% (95%CI, 9.5-15.7) compared to 5.7% (95%CI, 4.3-7.4) in the ENSM 2015, anxiety in 21.4% (95%CI, 17.7-25.3) compared to 16.5% (95%CI, 14.2-19.1) in the ENSM 2015, and psychosomatic disorders in 52.4% (95%CI, 47.5-56.7) in CONPAS 2014 compared to 42.2% (95%CI, 39.0-45.4) in the ENSM 2015. At the national level (ENSM 2015), displaced people had greater possibilities of presenting, compared to the regional level, suicidal ideation in 11.9% (95%CI, 9.3-14.1) compared to 7.3% (95%CI, 5.0-10.0) in CONPAS 2014 and bipolar disorder in 56.5% (95%CI, 53.2-59.7) compared to 39.3% (95%CI, 34.8-43.9) in CONPAS 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The greater possibilities of displaced populations at the regional level of experiencing a mental health disorder, compared to this same population at the national level, may represent and indicate greater needs in mental health care services in territories affected by conflict. Therefore, and given the need to facilitate access to health services in mental health for populations especially affected by armed conflict, there is a need to design health care policies that facilitate the recovery of populations affected by war and, simultaneously, that reduce inequities and promote the fulfilment of one of the most important and, at the same time, least prioritised health objectives in international development: mental health.

Health-related quality of life of a conflict-affected population in Colombia.

PURPOSE: We assessed the validity of the EQ-5D instrument; explored correlations between area of residence's conflict intensity and individual health-related quality of life (HRQoL); and identified factors associated with HRQoL in a conflict-affected population in Colombia. METHODS: We conducted a household survey among residents of the Meta province, collecting longitudinal information about HRQoL (EQ-5D-3L instrument), health, demographic and socio-economic indicators, for years 2014 (pre-2016 peace accord), 2018 (post-peace accord) and 2019 (follow-up). After examining EQ-5D's validity, we analysed panel data using multivariate random effects models to explore associations between area conflict levels (and other factors) and HRQoL. We scrutinised these results further through multivariate linear regressions using cross-sectional data, and provided preliminary estimates of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained since the Colombian peace accord. RESULTS: In total, 1309 individuals provided information for years 2014 and 2018; 1106 individuals were followed-up in 2019. Mean EQ-5D scores in 2014, 2018 and 2019 were 0.898, 0.846 and 0.902, respectively. The tests confirmed the validity of EQ-5D. Our estimations indicated a dose-response relationship between conflict levels and HRQoL: people in lightly and heavily affected areas had 0.019 and 0.037 lower EQ-5D scores (respectively) than people in non-affected areas. Other relevant factors included age, marital status, education, assets and health status. We estimated QALY gain of 0.0343 per individual and 20,752 for all Meta adults since the peace accord. CONCLUSION: We found EQ-5D to be a valid instrument for HRQoL measurement in a conflict-affected population. Area conflict intensity was negatively associated with individual HRQoL.